Estimate your probability of promotion to Colonel.

Key Takeaways

• Promotion is Never Certain. No one's probability of selection is ever exactly 100% or 0%. There are instances where people with excellent files are not selected. And instances where people with very weak files do get selected.
• Do a Good Job. The most important factor influencing selection is clearly the number of Above Center of Mass ratings an individual gets from his senior rater(s). That means that there is never a job in which it is "beneficial" to do a mediocre job.
• What about Senior Rater rank? Is it better to get a top block rating from a 3 star than a COL? Of course. The real question is "does a center of mass rating from a 3 star carry more weight than from a COL?"
• Interaction between BN CMD and Ratings. Clearly someone who does BN CMD and gets top ratings increases their chances for selection. However, this study does not address the impact of getting a center of mass rating while in BN CMD.
• Senior Rater comments. As with any model, there is a certain amount of unexplained variance. This may be attributable to the quality of the senior rater comments which were not included in the data used for this study.